Longitudinal analysis based on Generations and Gender Survey

Marriage remains a widely held aspiration in the Republic of Moldova, particularly among young adults. However, the transition from intention to marriage is far from automatic. Drawing on longitudinal data from the Generations and Gender Survey (GGS), this analysis examines whether individuals who intended to marry in 2020 had realized this intention by 2024 and identifies the factors shaping different relationship trajectories.

The analysis focuses on 506 respondents who were in an unmarried partnership at Wave I (2020) and were re-interviewed at Wave II (2024). Among those who intended to marry within three years, only 28 per cent had entered marriage by 2024. The majority remained in an unmarried partnership, while a smaller but notable share experienced relationship dissolution. These findings point to a substantial gap between marital intentions and outcomes, suggesting the presence of structural and contextual constraints rather than a declining commitment to partnership or marriage.

This analysis was developed under the Generations and Gender Programme (GGP) to provide in-depth, policy-relevant insights based on GGS data and to support national authorities in designing evidence-based policies that strengthen the demographic resilience of the Republic of Moldova.

The Generations and Gender Programme is implemented by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA Moldova) in partnership with the Ministry of Labour and Social Protection of the Republic of Moldova and the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Institute of Demography (NIDI). The Programme is funded by the India–UN Development Partnership Fund, the Government of Switzerland, and UNFPA Moldova.

The Generations and Gender Survey (GGS) is the most comprehensive longitudinal demographic study conducted in the Republic of Moldova, with Wave I carried out in 2020 and Wave II in 2024. The survey is part of the international GGP coordinated by the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) and NIDI. Its findings enable decision-makers to better understand ongoing demographic transformations and support the development of people-centred demographic policies. Ultimately, this analysis contributes to identifying policy measures that can turn current demographic challenges into opportunities for sustainable development and enhanced demographic resilience in Moldova.