Longitudinal analysis based on Generations and Gender Survey
Moldova faces a persistent gap between fertility intentions and outcomes. Although many Moldovans—particularly young adults—express the desire to have children, only about one-third of those who intended to have a child within three years in 2020 had realized this intention by 2024. This unrealized fertility reflects significant structural, economic, and social constraints. Analysis of Generations and Gender Survey (GGS) data shows that realization is strongly shaped by age, partnership status, and parity.
Individuals in their late 20s to early 30s, those with one prior child, and those in stable partnerships had the highest realization rates. By contrast, childless individuals, older adults, and those without a partner struggled to translate intentions into births. While employment status itself was not decisive, perceived job insecurity reduced the likelihood of realization, underscoring the role of economic uncertainty. Higher life satisfaction and supportive partner relationships were also associated with greater likelihood of achieving fertility plans.
The findings highlight that Moldova’s demographic resilience depends not on encouraging more children than desired, but on ensuring that those who wish to become parents can do so. Sustained investment in family policies, gender equality, youth opportunities, and partnership stability will be critical for closing the gap between intended and realized fertility and for supporting the rights and aspirations of Moldova’s citizens.
This analysis was developed under the Generations and Gender Programme (GGP) to offer in-depth, targeted insights based on GGS data and to support national authorities in designing evidence-based policies that strengthen the demographic resilience of the Republic of Moldova.
The GGP is implemented by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA Moldova) in partnership with the Ministry of Labour and Social Protection and the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Institute of Demography (NIDI). The Programme is funded by the India-UN Development Partnership Fund, the Government of Switzerland, and UNFPA Moldova.
The Generations and Gender Survey (GGS) is the most comprehensive longitudinal demographic study conducted in the Republic of Moldova, with Wave I implemented in 2020 and Wave II in 2024, as part of the international programme coordinated by the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) and NIDI.
The study’s findings will help decision-makers better understand ongoing demographic transformations and support the development of people-centred demographic policies tailored to the population’s needs. Additionally, the insights from this analysis will assist authorities in identifying measures that can turn current demographic challenges into opportunities for sustainable development and for advancing Moldova’s demographic resilience.
